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Getting an Edge in Sports Betting: Contrarian Sports Investing
Many people enjoy sports and sports fans enjoy betting on the outcome of sporting events. Most casual sports bettors lose money over time, giving the sports betting industry a bad name. But what if we “even the playing field?”
If we transform sports betting into a more business-like and commercial endeavour, there is a high possibility that we can make a case for sports betting as an investment.
Sports market as an asset class
How can we make the leap from gambling to investing? Working with a team of analysts, economists and Wall Street professionals – we often throw around the phrase “sports investing”. But what makes something a “property class?”
An asset class is often described as an investment in the marketplace – one that has an inherent return. There is clearly a market in the world of sports betting – but what about the source of the returns?
For example, investors earn interest on bonds in exchange for lending. Stockholders get a long-term return by owning a part of the company. Some economists say that “sports investors” have an inherent return in the form of “risk transfer”. That is, sports investors can earn returns by helping to provide liquidity and transferring risk to other sports marketplace participants (such as the betting public and sportsbooks).
Sports Investment Indicators
We can take this investment analogy a step further by studying the sports betting “marketplace.” Just as more traditional assets such as stocks and bonds are based on price, dividend yield and interest rates – sports market “price” is based on point spreads or money line odds. These lines and odds change over time as stock prices rise and fall.
To further our goal of making sports gambling a more business-like endeavor and to further study the sports market, we collect several additional indicators. In particular, we collect public “betting percentages” to study “money flow” and sports market activity. In addition, just as financial headlines scream, “Stocks rally on heavy volume,” we also track betting activity in the sports betting market.
Participants in the sports market
Earlier, we discussed “risk transfer” and participants in sports markets. In the world of sports betting, sportsbooks serve the same purpose as brokers and market makers in the investing world. They sometimes act like institutional investors.
In the investment world, the general public is known as the “small investor”. Similarly, ordinary people usually place small bets in sports markets. Small bettors usually have their heart, roots for their favorite teams and certain tendencies that can be exploited by other market participants.
“Sports investors” are participants who take on similar roles as market-makers or institutional investors. Sports investors use a business-like approach to profit from sports betting. In effect, they take on the role of risk transfer and are able to reap the inherent returns of the sports betting industry.
How can we get the basic income of the sports market? One method is to use a contrarian approach and bet against people to get value. This is one of the reasons why we collect and study “Betting Percentages” from several major online sportsbooks. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of market action – and the performance of the “general public”.
This, combined with point spread movement and the “volume” of betting activity can give us an idea of what the various participants are doing. Our research shows that the public – or “small bettors” – typically underperform in the sports betting industry. This, in turn, allows us to systematically capture value using sports investment methods. Our mission is to apply a systematic and educational approach to the sports betting industry.
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